Metaculus

Metaculus is a community-driven forecasting platform that aggregates predictions from thousands of forecasters to generate calibrated probability estimates on world events. Founded by Anthony Aguirre and Greg Laughlin, it combines crowd forecasting with AI models and regular tournaments. Unlike betting markets, Metaculus focuses on accuracy and calibration rather than monetary trading. Used extensively by the effective altruism community, policy researchers, and intelligence analysts. Features include question creation, community predictions, Metaculus Prediction (aggregate), and AI forecasting benchmarks. [S1]