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Active traders seeking to profit from price discrepancies between prediction market venuesPolitical analysts, journalists, and traders following election and policy prediction marketsRetail traders looking to identify and follow informed money in prediction marketsActive prediction market traders managing exposure across multiple platformsTraders who want to capitalize on market reactions to breaking news 
Polymarket90%
Kalshi90%
Metaculus80%
PredictIt80%Chance vs
Chance vs
Chance vs
Polymarket95%Kalshi95%
Predict.fun85%Metaculus60% 
Chance
Multi-platform prediction market aggregator terminal for monitoring, analyzing, and trading across Polymarket, Kalshi, Opinion Labs, and Predict.fun.
toolingactiveTerminal
- Unified dashboard for cross-platform prediction market monitoring
- Real-time alerts for whale activity, spread compression, and volume spikes
- Single-interface execution across multiple prediction market venues
Last verified: Jan 15, 2025
Key Facts
Classification
Stack RolesTrading Terminal, Data Analytics, distribution
ChainsPolygon
Geographyglobal
Product
Market TypesEvent Markets
CustodySelf Custody70%
SettlementSettlement occurs on underlying platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.); Chance provides terminal interface only
Summary
Chance is a prediction market aggregator terminal designed to consolidate the fragmented prediction market landscape into a unified trading interface. The platform integrates four major prediction market venues—Polymarket (decentralized, blockchain-based), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated US exchange), Opinion Labs, and Predict.fun—with plans to add more integrations.
Core Functionality
Chance provides three primary capabilities: monitoring, analysis, and execution. The monitoring layer aggregates all markets from connected platforms into a single feed, eliminating the need to tab between multiple websites or apps. The analysis layer includes price tracking, trend visualization, and probability comparisons across venues. The execution layer enables trading directly through the Chance interface.
Alert System
The platform's distinguishing feature is its smart alert system. Users can configure notifications for: (1) spread compression events—when the bid-ask spread on a market narrows rapidly, often signaling incoming resolution or informed trading; (2) whale activity—large position entries that may move markets; (3) volume spikes—sudden interest that may indicate news or momentum shifts; (4) sentiment changes—shifts in market-implied probabilities.
Use Case in Prediction Markets
Prediction markets have historically been fragmented. Polymarket dominates crypto-native users on Polygon; Kalshi serves US-regulated users; smaller platforms like Opinion Labs and Predict.fun occupy niches. Traders seeking arbitrage opportunities or comprehensive market coverage must monitor multiple platforms manually. Chance addresses this friction by providing a single pane of glass for the entire prediction market ecosystem.
Target Users
The platform targets active traders, arbitrageurs, and researchers who need real-time cross-platform visibility. It is particularly valuable for those tracking political events, crypto predictions, and sports outcomes across multiple venues simultaneously. [S1, S3, S4]
Key Features
Multi-Market Aggregation90%
Unified feed combining Polymarket, Kalshi, Opinion Labs, and Predict.fun markets
Universal Watchlist85%
Cross-platform watchlist tracking events across all integrated prediction markets
Smart Alerts - Spread Compression85%
Real-time alerts when market spreads narrow rapidly, signaling potential resolution
Smart Alerts - Whale Activity80%
Notifications when large traders enter or exit positions
Smart Alerts - Volume Spikes80%
Instant notifications when trading volume surges on tracked markets
Smart Alerts - Sentiment Changes80%
Alerts when market-implied probabilities shift significantly
Cross-Platform Execution75%
Trade on multiple prediction markets from a single terminal interface
Unified Analytics Dashboard70%
Consolidated analytics and visualization across all prediction market positions
How People Use Chance
Cross-Platform Arbitrage Trading
75%A trader notices that 'Will candidate X win the election?' is trading at 62% on Polymarket but 55% on Kalshi. This 7-point spread represents an arbitrage opportunity—buying Yes on Kalshi and No on Polymarket (or vice versa depending on conviction) locks in a profit if executed properly.
Political Event Monitoring
80%A political analyst needs to track election probabilities across multiple prediction markets for a real-time dashboard. They want to know immediately when any platform shows significant movement on key races.
Whale Following Strategy
70%A trader believes that large, informed participants ('whales') have better information or analysis than the general market. They want to receive alerts when whales enter positions and evaluate whether to follow.
Portfolio Risk Management
70%A trader has positions on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict.fun totaling significant exposure. They need to monitor aggregate risk and ensure no single event or category represents outsized risk.
News-Driven Event Trading
70%Breaking news (e.g., a policy announcement, candidate statement, or economic data) is expected to move prediction markets. The trader wants to be first to react across all relevant platforms.
Alternatives to Chance
Largest decentralized prediction market; native platform with deeper features but single-venue focus
CFTC-regulated US prediction exchange; institutional features but US-only and single venue
Forecasting aggregation platform; community forecasts but no trading execution
Manifold Markets75%
Play-money prediction market platform; gamified experience but not real-money trading
US political prediction market; established but limited market selection and liquidity caps
AI-powered prediction market analytics; different value prop focused on forecasting accuracy
Chance vs Others
Chance vs Polymarket
| Dimension | Chance | Polymarket | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Platform Type | Aggregator terminal | Prediction market venue | Chance aggregates Polymarket and others1,3 |
| Market Access | Multi-platform (4+ venues) | Polymarket only | Chance provides cross-platform visibility1 |
| Alert System | Advanced (whale, spread, volume, sentiment) | Basic platform notifications | Chance has sophisticated alert taxonomy1 |
| Execution | Via underlying platforms | Direct on-chain | Both enable trading; Chance adds interface layer1,3 |
| Regulation | Depends on connected venue | Decentralized, unregulated | Polymarket is offshore, non-regulated3 |
| Fees | Unclear + underlying platform fees | Polymarket trading fees | Chance fee structure not published1 |
Rule of thumb
Use Chance when you need cross-platform visibility, arbitrage hunting, or sophisticated alerts. Use Polymarket directly when you want the deepest liquidity on crypto-native markets and don't need multi-venue features. Chance adds value as an intelligence layer but may add latency for pure execution speed.
Chance vs Kalshi
| Dimension | Chance | Kalshi | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Platform Type | Aggregator terminal | CFTC-regulated exchange | Kalshi is a regulated US exchange1,4 |
| Geographic Access | Global (venue-dependent) | US residents only | Kalshi has strict KYC/US requirements4 |
| Regulatory Status | Aggregates regulated and unregulated | CFTC-regulated | Kalshi offers regulatory certainty4 |
| Market Variety | Aggregates 4+ platforms | Kalshi markets only | Chance offers broader market access1 |
| Alert Features | Comprehensive smart alerts | Standard exchange notifications | Chance has superior alerting1 |
Rule of thumb
Use Kalshi directly if you're a US resident seeking regulatory protection and are satisfied with Kalshi's market selection. Use Chance to monitor Kalshi alongside other platforms, access advanced alerts, or if you trade across multiple venues and need consolidated intelligence.
Chance vs Metaculus
| Dimension | Chance | Metaculus | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Platform Type | Trading terminal | Forecasting community | Different core purposes1,5 |
| Real Money | Yes (via connected venues) | No (reputation points only) | Metaculus is non-financial5 |
| Execution | Trade execution enabled | No trading functionality | Fundamentally different use cases1,5 |
| Forecast Quality | Market-implied probabilities | Aggregated expert forecasts | Metaculus often more accurate on complex questions5 |
| Alert System | Real-time trading alerts | Resolution notifications | Chance focused on trading signals1 |
Rule of thumb
Use Metaculus for high-quality forecasts and research; use Chance for active trading and real-time market intelligence. They serve different purposes and can be complementary—check Metaculus for forecast accuracy, then use Chance to execute on prediction markets.
Chance Risks & Limitations
Platform dependency and single point of failure
85%Most affects: Active traders who rely exclusively on Chance for all prediction market activities
Unverified security posture
90%Most affects: Users connecting Chance to accounts with significant capital at risk
Execution latency versus direct platform access
80%Most affects: High-frequency traders and news-driven event traders where seconds matter
Incomplete feature coverage of underlying platforms
75%Most affects: Power users who utilize advanced features on individual prediction market platforms
Unknown business model and sustainability
80%Most affects: Users planning to integrate Chance deeply into their trading workflow
Timeline
What Changed Recently
Recent60%
Site active and operational as of verification date; no major changes identified in recent period
Relationships
integrates_with
Chance aggregates Polymarket markets and provides terminal access to trading on the platform
Chance aggregates Kalshi markets and provides terminal access to trading on the platform
Opinion Labs85%
Chance aggregates Opinion Labs markets as part of its multi-platform offering
Chance aggregates Predict.fun markets as part of its multi-platform offering
competes_with
Different approach (forecasting community vs trading terminal) but overlapping user need for prediction aggregation
FAQ
Sources & Verification
Team/founder information not publicly available
Fee structure not documented
No public security audits or bug bounty
Launch timeline not available
official_website
ChanceJan 15, 2025S1
WikipediaJan 15, 2025S2
official_website
PolymarketJan 15, 2025S3
official_website
KalshiJan 15, 2025S4
official_website
MetaculusJan 15, 2025S5
Data QualityCompleteness: 72%Confidence: 72%
Help Improve This Page
This dossier for Chance has some gaps. If you have knowledge about any of the following areas, consider contributing.
Company identity (founders, headquarters, legal entity)
No About page, LinkedIn, or public records found for the Chance terminal entity
Suggested sources
- - LinkedIn company search
- - Crunchbase search for 'Chance prediction market'
- - WHOIS/domain registration records
Business model and pricing
Website does not display pricing, subscription tiers, or monetization explanation
Suggested sources
- - App store listings
- - User reviews mentioning pricing
- - Direct contact with team
Security documentation
No audits page, security whitepaper, or bug bounty program publicly listed
Suggested sources
- - Contact team directly
- - Security researcher forums
- - Platform penetration test disclosures
User metrics and traction
No public metrics on users, volume processed, or markets monitored
Suggested sources
- - Team social media
- - Press releases
- - Dune analytics if on-chain component exists
Topic Hubs
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