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Traders with strong views on election outcomes, policy decisions, or geopolitical events.Traders with existing prediction market positions seeking to reduce or offset risk.Capital providers seeking yield without taking directional bets on prediction market outcomes.Traders who identify mispriced prediction market odds and want to bet against them. 
Polymarket90%
Azuro75%
Kalshi85%
Limitless50%
Metaculus70%Ultra Markets vs
Ultra Markets vs
Polymarket50%Kalshi70% 
Ultra Markets
Ultra Markets is a margin layer for prediction markets enabling up to 10× leverage with pre-resolution auto-close and LP yield opportunities.
infrastructureactiveTerminal
- First real margin layer purpose-built for prediction markets
- Enables leveraged long/short positions on event outcomes with gap risk protection
- Provides LPs yield from fees and liquidations without directional exposure
Last verified: Jan 9, 2025
Key Facts
Classification
Stack RolesTrading Terminal, liquidity, infra
Product
Market TypesEvent Markets
Custodyunknown20%
SettlementPre-resolution auto-close mechanism eliminates gap risk
Summary
Ultra Markets positions itself as "the first real margin layer for prediction markets," addressing a critical gap in the prediction market ecosystem. While prediction markets like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus have grown significantly—with weekly volumes reportedly surpassing $5.37 billion—traders have historically lacked access to leverage and sophisticated risk management tools commonly available in traditional financial markets.
The platform enables traders to go up to 10× long or short on event outcomes, amplifying potential returns (and risks) on political, economic, sports, and other prediction markets. A key innovation is the pre-resolution auto-close mechanism, which automatically closes positions before market resolution. This eliminates gap risk—the danger that a position cannot be closed before the outcome is known and settled—protecting both traders and the system from catastrophic losses.
For liquidity providers, Ultra Markets offers a compelling proposition: earn yield from trading fees and liquidation events with zero directional exposure. This is achieved through the platform's design, which allows LPs to provide margin capital that backs leveraged positions without taking a position on outcomes themselves. This stands in contrast to traditional prediction market LPs who often face directional risk.
The project appears to be in an early development or waitlist phase, with limited public documentation available. Key unknowns include supported chains (likely Ethereum L2s given prediction market activity), custody model, audit status, and fee structure. The platform targets professional traders and sophisticated LPs who understand leverage mechanics and are comfortable with the associated risks.
Ultra Markets enters a space adjacent to prediction market venues (Polymarket, Azuro) and trading tooling (various terminal products), but its margin layer positioning is relatively unique. Success will depend on execution, security, regulatory navigation, and ability to integrate with major prediction market platforms.
Sources: S1, S2, S3
Key Features
10× Leverage on Event Markets85%
Amplify exposure to prediction market outcomes with up to 10× leverage long or short.
Pre-Resolution Auto-Close85%
Positions automatically close before resolution, eliminating gap risk for traders and LPs.
LP Yield Without Directional Exposure80%
Provide liquidity and earn from fees and liquidations without betting on outcomes.
Long and Short Positions80%
Go long or short on any supported prediction market outcome.
Prediction Market Infrastructure Layer75%
Purpose-built margin infrastructure designed specifically for prediction market mechanics.
Liquidation Mechanism75%
Under-margined positions are liquidated with proceeds flowing to LPs.
How People Use Ultra Markets
Amplifying Conviction on Political Events
70%You have high conviction that a particular candidate will win an upcoming election and want to express this view with more than 1× exposure. Instead of deploying $10,000 at 1× on Polymarket, you use Ultra Markets to take a 5× leveraged long position, effectively controlling $50,000 of exposure with the same capital. If your thesis plays out, returns are amplified proportionally to the leverage used.
Hedging Prediction Market Exposure
65%You hold a large position on one prediction market platform betting Yes on an event, but new information causes uncertainty. Rather than selling your entire position (which may have tax implications or slippage costs), you open a short position on Ultra Markets to hedge. If the event doesn't occur, your short profits offset your original position losses.
Providing Delta-Neutral Liquidity
65%You're a DeFi-native capital provider looking for yield opportunities but are uncomfortable taking directional positions on political or event outcomes. Ultra Markets offers LP positions that earn from trading fees and liquidations without requiring you to bet on any specific outcome. Your returns come from market activity, not from being on the winning side of trades.
Shorting Overpriced Prediction Market Outcomes
65%A prediction market shows a 75% probability for an event that you've analyzed at only 40% probability. The market is overpriced from your perspective. Using Ultra Markets, you can open a short position with leverage, profiting if the outcome doesn't occur. The ability to short directly—rather than buying the opposite outcome—may offer better pricing or liquidity on some markets.
Alternatives to Ultra Markets
Leading prediction market venue; offers direct exposure but no native leverage
Prediction market protocol; different architecture without margin layer focus
Regulated US prediction exchange; CFTC-regulated, no leverage offered
Prediction market platform; different approach to market structure
Forecasting platform; community predictions without trading/leverage
Ultra Markets vs Others
Ultra Markets vs Polymarket
| Dimension | Ultra Markets | Polymarket | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primary Function | Margin/leverage layer | Prediction market venue | Complementary rather than directly competitive1,4 |
| Leverage | Up to 10× | None (1× only) | Key differentiator for Ultra Markets1,4 |
| Position Type | Long and short with leverage | Buy Yes or No shares | Functionally similar outcomes, different mechanics1,4 |
| Gap Risk | Eliminated via auto-close | N/A (no leverage) | Gap risk only matters with leverage1 |
| LP Model | Delta-neutral yield from fees/liquidations | AMM LP with directional exposure | Fundamentally different LP risk profiles1,4 |
| Regulatory Status | Unknown | CFTC no-action letter (US) | Polymarket has more regulatory clarity4 |
Rule of thumb
Think of Ultra Markets and Polymarket as complementary rather than competitive. Polymarket is where prediction markets happen; Ultra Markets is where you add leverage to those positions. If you're comfortable with 1× exposure and want maximum regulatory clarity, use Polymarket directly. If you need leverage, understand the risks, and are comfortable with a newer platform, Ultra Markets may be appropriate. Many traders will use both: Polymarket for base exposure, Ultra Markets for leveraged positions.
Ultra Markets vs Kalshi
| Dimension | Ultra Markets | Kalshi | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory Status | Unknown | CFTC-regulated DCM | Kalshi is fully regulated in the US2 |
| Leverage | Up to 10× | None | Kalshi operates as exchange without margin1,2 |
| US Access | Unknown | Full US access | Kalshi available to US persons2 |
| Market Type | Margin layer | Event exchange | Different positioning in stack1,2 |
| Asset Custody | Unknown | Custodial (fiat) | Kalshi uses traditional fiat rails2 |
Rule of thumb
Kalshi is the regulatory-compliant choice for US-based traders who want simple event contract exposure without leverage. It operates like a traditional CFTC-regulated exchange with fiat on-ramps and strong legal footing. Ultra Markets offers leverage and DeFi-native infrastructure but with uncertain regulatory status. Choose Kalshi for regulatory safety and simplicity; consider Ultra Markets if you need leverage and are comfortable with crypto-native platforms and their associated risks.
Ultra Markets Risks & Limitations
Leverage amplifies losses
90%Most affects: Traders new to leveraged products or those with large position sizes relative to account equity.
Unaunched/early-stage platform with no audit history
85%Most affects: All users, especially those depositing large amounts or LP capital.
Uncertain regulatory status
80%Most affects: Users in jurisdictions with strict gambling or derivatives regulations (US, UK, etc.).
Liquidation cascades during volatile events
75%Most affects: LPs providing capital and traders with positions during high-volatility events.
Limited transparency and documentation
85%Most affects: All users making decisions with incomplete information.
Pre-resolution auto-close limits profit potential
75%Most affects: Traders with longer-term theses who want to hold positions through resolution.
Timeline
Relationships
integrates_with
Potential integration target; Ultra Markets margin layer could sit on top of Polymarket markets
similar_to
competes_with
Alternative for traders seeking prediction market exposure, though Kalshi offers no leverage
FAQ
Sources & Verification
Only one primary source (official website); limited verifiable information available
Entity appears to be in early/stealth development with minimal public documentation
No social media, docs, or GitHub links found
Team, funding, and audit status unknown
Regulatory posture unclear; may affect US/UK user access
official_website
Ultra MarketsJan 9, 2025S1
PBS NewsHourJan 9, 2025S2
Phemex NewsJan 9, 2025S3
CointelegraphJan 9, 2025S4
CoinMarketCapJan 9, 2025S5
Data QualityCompleteness: 72%Confidence: 72%
Help Improve This Page
This dossier for Ultra Markets has some gaps. If you have knowledge about any of the following areas, consider contributing.
Team identity and background
Official website does not list team; no LinkedIn, Crunchbase, or other database entries found for this specific entity
Suggested sources
- - LinkedIn search
- - Team announcement post
- - Conference talks or interviews
Supported blockchain(s)
No technical documentation publicly available
Suggested sources
- - Technical docs/whitepaper
- - Deployed contract addresses
- - Etherscan/block explorer
Security audit status
Platform appears to be pre-launch or early stage; no audit reports found
Suggested sources
- - Official audit announcement
- - Security firm publications
- - Bug bounty platform listing
Fee structure and pricing
Limited public documentation; likely not finalized or not yet published
Suggested sources
- - Docs/FAQ page when published
- - Beta tester reports
- - Official announcements
Launch timeline and current status
Seed indicated 'waitlisted' but current launch status unclear from available sources
Suggested sources
- - Official Twitter/X announcements
- - Discord community
- - Blog posts
Integration partners
Platform in early development; partnerships likely not yet announced
Suggested sources
- - Partnership announcements
- - Integration documentation
- - Supported markets list when available
Topic Hubs
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